MLB Game Picks - Wednesday: May 22, 2013

Good golly, I feel a rant coming. Statistics will show that Miguel Gonzalez pitched a great game against the Yankees. He went seven innings, gave up two runs on five hits with no walks and five strikeouts. Great game, right? His Game Score will be around 60 or a little higher. But I watched that game. He did not have a great outing. The Yankees hit at least sixteen balls hard. I mean absolutely squared up line drives. All but a couple of them ended up in someone's glove. And why the heck did the Nationals' bullpen have to blow Strasburg's win? That really torqued me. As did the fact that of the four games that went into extra innings, three of them went the wrong way for the picks. It is unfair I tell you!

There were a couple of stupid picks thrown in there. I will be the first to admit that. But picking baseball games is impossible when luck and chance play such a big part in each and every game. Last night's picks went 7-8. They just as easily could have gone 11-4 if balls bounced just a little differently.

Rant over. There are games to pick:

• The Braves over the Twins: This game illustrates exactly what I was talking about. Vance Worley and Paul Maholm pitch for their respective teams and it all depends on where those batted balls go. There will be a lot of batted balls in this one.
• The Reds over the Mets: Matt Harvey will pitch brilliantly, but will give up a run. Mat Latos will pitch brilliantly and give up no runs. The Mets' bullpen will cough up another couple of runs. The Reds' bullpen shuts the Mets down. Ballgame.
• The Brewers over the Dodgers: The Brewers may be a lot of things as a team, but they are always good at home. They need a good game from Wily Peralta. But the Dodgers are so inconsistent offensively that the possibility exists. I am not yet on the Hyun-Jin Ryu bandwagon.
• The Athletics over the Rangers: If the A's played the Rangers for 162 games, their final record would be 160-2. The Rangers simply cannot beat these guys. This feels so much like last year, it is not even funny: Rangers build a big lead in the division but cannot beat the A's head to head and end up out of the playoffs. Jarrod Parker over inexperienced, Ross Wolf.
• The Diamondbacks over the Rockies: I am still zero for Trevor Cahill this season. Pick against him and he wins. Pick for him and he loses. So this is one of those reverse picks. I think he will get his butt kicked at Coors Field, but if I picked that, he would win. So I will pick the opposite. Jorge De La Rosa goes for the Rockies.
• The Giants over the Nationals: It seems obvious that Jayson Werth is missed in this lineup. Dis his contract all you want, the Nats are better when he was in there. And I think they miss Michael Morse too. Madison Bumgarner over Gio Gonzalez.
• The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: Another battle of the Ays. I do not like either pitcher in this one. Jeremy Hellickson has not been anywhere close to dominant. And Mark Buehrle is that antithesis of dominant. Impossible game to predict.
• The Pirates over the Cubs: I really hate picking against Jeff Samardzija. I really like him. But the Cubs do not score when he pitches. Or at least, so it seems. Besides, Francisco Liriano appears to have figured life out and is throwing a lot of zeroes up there.
• The Tigers over the Indians: The Indians are easily the coolest story so far this season. And Ubaldo Jimenez has been much better of late. But Justin Verlander has to be given the pick despite the fact that he has appeared very human lately.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: Hiroki Kuroda seems due for a clunker. But he needs to be good in this rubber match of the series. A two-game swing is in the balance. Jason Hammel always seems to pitch the Yankees tough. Interesting game and unpredictable to call.
• The Angels over the Mariners: The Angels appear poised to go on a run. The offense is gelling a bit and all they need is decent pitching. C.J. Wilson will give them that and the Angels could get all over Brandon Maurer. And here comes Mike Trout.
• The Phillies over the Marlins: So much for the Marlins winning two in a row. I must have eaten some bad fish when I picked that puppy yesterday. Cliff Lee should be better than Kevin Slowey. I always want to call the latter, "Slow, Slowey, Sloweyest."
• The Red Sox over the White Sox: The battle of the hoses goes on. The Red Sox had trouble with Quintana last night and Hector Santiago is a very similar pitcher. But Clay Buchholz is a very good pitcher and the pick has to go in that direction.
• The Cardinals over the Padres: Tyler Lyons versus Burch Smith. Uh...What do we go by on this one? Let's see. Burch Smith has already gotten his feet wet in the majors with a few starts. He has gotten a bit bloodied. Tyler Lyons has excellent control from looking at his minor league numbers. But it has not translated to success. I love good control guys though.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Royals over the Astros: James Shields is one of the most reliable pitchers around. He seems to be a logical pick over Jordan Lyles. The Royals need to score some runs for Shields though.

Yesterday: 7-8

Week: 22-20  blah

Month: 161-121

Season: 390-285

Games of the Day: 34-16

MLB Game Picks - Tuesday: May 21, 2013

Monday's picks started out at 5-0 and I was thinking that something groovy was going on. But then the Rangers lost, Cole Hamels lost...again, the Red Sox lost, the Royals lost and the Cardinals lost. By then, the day had turned just ordinary and finished with a final tally of, 8-5. But in the grand scheme of things, with so many lives torn by those awful storms in our country, silly little game picks seem puny and meaningless. My heart goes out to all of you affected by these storms that did so much damage in property and casualties.

We are back to a full schedule as the season grinds on for another day. Here are the picks:

• The Pirates over the Cubs: Matt Garza returns and makes his first start off of the disabled list. Those kinds of starts hardly ever get picked around here because the pitcher will only last five innings or so as he builds back up to full strength. Besides, Wandy Rodriguez has been pitching really well for the Pirates.
• The Tigers over the Indians: The Indians have something really special going on right now. But their train is slowed down a bit by Max Scherzer throwing darts and the Tigers getting some runs against Corey Kluber.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: It is almost getting to the point that I hope the regulars on the DL stay there a bit longer for the Yankees. They have become a fun team to root for with rookies and castoffs all over the field. And they are catching the Orioles here in a real flat spot. The O's losing streak hits seven as Phil Hughes bounces back from a horrible start his last time out and the Yankees hit Miguel Gonzalez.
• The Rays over the Blue Jays: The Blue Jays took the first battle of the Ays last night. And Alex Cobb has not been a shut down pitcher. But Cobb should yield fewer runs than the ancient Ramon Ortiz.
• The Reds over the Mets: There does not seem to be much separation from Mike Leake to Jonathon Niese. Both have a WHIP close to 1.5, both have some good games and some bad. The Reds' lineup is better than the Mets' and Leake's bat makes a difference too. Gotta go with the Reds.
• The Braves over the Twins: I saw a statistic the other night that only a half a dozen pitchers or so in rotations around baseball have an average against of .310 or higher and the Twins have three of them. The team's insistence on building rotations on strike throwing, BABIP pitchers is a model they have to break some day. Tim Hudson over Mike Pelfrey in this one as a strikeout-prone Braves' lineup is greatly helped by not facing strikeout pitchers.
• The Marlins over the Phillies: There it is. A Marlins' two-game winning streak. Predicting it to happen is quite frightening actually. But I like the match-up of a flame-throwing Jose Fernandez against an old lineup. Tyler Cloyd was not half bad in his first start.
• The Rangers over the Athletics: The A's have some special mojo against the Rangers. It is uncanny how they single-handedly have stayed in the race the last year and a quarter simply by beating the Rangers every time they play them. But they will not beat Yu Darvish if he is on and Dan Straily should not be able to keep up.
• The Red Sox over the White Sox: Felix Doubront and Carlos Quintana do not have a lot of separation between them. But Doubront does have a tendency to let things rattle him.  Even so, I have to go with the Red Sox here.
• The Astros over the Royals: Something historic will happen today. Both the Marlins and the Astros will win their second game in a row. That will not happen often this season. The Royals are flatter than a pancake right now. Bud Norris is exceedingly talented, but often frustrating. Wade Davis is a lot like Phil Hughes and sometimes he is good and sometimes he is bad.
• The Diamondbacks over the Rockies: I do not like Ian Kennedy's chances in Coors Field. But I am not sold on Jhoulys Chacin either. This should be a high scoring game with the D-backs coming out on top in the end.
• The Angels over the Mariners: Even the Angels should have a fighting chance in this one as Jerome Williams should be better than Aaron Harang.
• The Cardinals over the Padres: This pick did not work out that well yesterday. But Edinson Volquez does not have the bamboozle like Jason Marquis. And I cannot believe that both Shelby Miller and Adam Wainwright can both lose in San Diego.
• The Nationals over the Giants: An on-paper good match-up between Stephen Strasburg against Matt Cain. My only concern with this pick is that the Nationals' offense has gone missing. This is more of a heart pick than a smart pick.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Dodgers over the Brewers: Zack Greinke should beat Hiram Burgos. I hate whenever I say, "Should" though.

Yesterday: 8-5

Week: 15-12

Month: 154-113

Season: 383-277

Games of the Day: 34-15

And a very happy birthday to my beloved son, born this day 34 years ago. I love you, Bill.

MLB Game Picks - Monday: May 20, 2013

What a blah day of picking! With the rain-out of the Yankees - Blue Jays game and what would have surely been a correct pick, the final tally was a .500 day. Blah. When I went to bed, I was sure the day would end up barely in the black. The Tigers had a 3-1 lead on the Rangers. But apparently, when I went to bed, all heck broke loose and the game became batting practice. And despite three homers by Miguel Cabrera, the Rangers won the slugfest. Well, that is great for the Rangers but not so good on the picks.

Earlier in the day, the Game of the Day pick, Reds, had a 2-0 lead when the ball was handed to Aroldis Chapman. "That one is in the bag," I thought. Boom. Boom. The bag had busted open and a bunch of dust fell on the floor. Closers. Everyone says they are not important. Sure they aren't. :::eyeroll:::

Today is quite a busy day in baseball despite it being a Monday. Thirteen games are scheduled (weather permitting). Here are the picks:

• The Indians over the Mariners: I was really torn over this one. For one thing, Hisashi Iwakuma has been the best pitcher in the American League thus far. Second, the Indians are starting Scott Kazmir, an iffy proposition. But I like the way Kazmir has been pitching and do not think the M's will score. And the Indians have been red hot. So that is the pick.
• The Blue Jays over the Bay Rays: Another battle of the Ays. The Rays will start Jake Odorizzi and hope that he does not stink. That was joke, if you did not get it. Odorizzi is a former first round draft pick by the Royals and was part of the big Wade Davis and James Shields trade. Odorizzi has decent minor league numbers and two major league starts to his credit (they did not go that well). I am going with R.A. Dickey.
• The Yankees over the Orioles: So Freddy Garcia will have extra incentive by facing his old team. But Freddy does not have a whole lot of gas left in the tank. CC Sabathia will have an extra day of rest. Not sure if that will help or hurt him. The Orioles will be dangerous after getting whipped by the Rays all weekend.
• The Reds over the Mets: Johnny Cueto is back in this one and usually, a first start back from the DL is not one I like to pick. But Cueto has done this before and usually comes back fine. Plus, the Mets start Shaun Marcum, of whom I have no faith in at all.
• The Braves over the Twins: I have no idea at all what will happen in this game. Julio Teheran and Kevin Correia are so unpredictable that anything can happen. So this is a flip of the coin / go with the home team sort of game.
• The Phillies over the Marlins: It is getting really, really old picking Cole Hamels to win every time just to see him lose. So he is 1-6 and is facing the 2-6 Alex Sanabia. What great fun. Do the Marlins play 162 games at home this season? It sure feels like it.
• The Rangers over the Athletics: I was watching the highlights of the game last night and Adrian Beltre had four hits including two doubles. Then I laughed because the two doubles were doinks that landed perfectly and one of his singles was a slow roller that bounced through the infield somehow. Hey, they all look good in the box score. If the Rangers are not too tired from last night, they should win this one even though Josh Lindblom is starting for the injured Alexi Ogando. Lindblom was part of the Michael Young deal and has 101 relief appearances in the majors. But he is still 25 and is having a good year starting in the minors. Bartolo Colon goes for the A's.
• The Red Sox over the White Sox: Jon Lester should make the difference in which foot covering wins this particular game. Dylan Axelrod goes for the White Sox.
• The Royals over the Astros: What the heck has happened to the Royals' offense? It seems so unreliable. The kids that were supposed to blow up the majors have blown up themselves. I am confused. They now have some pitching and still cannot get out of their own way. Jeremy Guthrie was not treated well his last time out. But Dallas Keuchel is not among my favorites to pick.
• The Dodgers over the Brewers: This one is ripe for being wrong. Clayton Kershaw got a little rest from the Dodgers. That is a bit scary. But he is the best there is and should win every game. But he does not because his team is inconsistent as heck. Then they are playing at Milwaukee where Yovani Gallardo is tough to beat.
• The Diamondbacks over the Rockies: Patrick Corbin is one of my favorites. But then I picked Wade Miley yesterday and he is one too. So see what good that did me. And Corbin pitching in Coors Field is dicey. But he should be better than Jon Garland.
• The Cardinals over the Padres: Jason Marquis sure has had a long and mediocre career, hasn't he? Included in there were two blah years with the Cardinals. Heck, if Dave Duncan could not make you successful, there is little there to work with. Shelby Miller, on the other hand, is the bomb. Of course, you do know that ever pitcher I make fun of wins, right?

And the Game of the Day!

• The Giants over the Nationals: Zach Duke!? Seriously!? The Nats are going to start Zach Duke? Obviously, I am no enamored with that choice. But the Giants a lock behind the Ryan Vogelsong that has been beat up lately? Yeah. I will still take him over Zach Duke.

Yesterday: 7-7

Week: 7-7

Month: 146-108

Season: 375-272

Games of the Day: 33-15

MLB Game Picks - Sunday: May 19, 2013

Four games yesterday hung in the balance until the last inning. All four went the wrong way. The Nationals wasted another Jordan Zimmermann beauty and could not score more than one run and lost in extras. A.J. Burnett left with a 2-1 lead after seven. Mark Melancon allowed Houston to tie the game in the eighth and the Astros won in extras. Those freakin' Cardinals tied the game late and the game went into extra innings. The Brewers won. That is the way the day went.

Of course, I should not gloss over the fact that some stinker picks were in there too. I had the Phillies over the Reds. That pick was only off by ten runs. I thought Scott Diamond had a chance against the Red Sox. I thought way wrong. I predicted a high scoring game with the Rockies and Giants with the Giants winning. But the Rockies were the only one of the two that went high scoring.

The bottom line was a 7-8 day, an rare incorrect Game of the Day and a bummer of a week-ender after two very good days that preceded it. Sunday cleans the slate (cliche alert!) and a new week starts.

Sunday's picks:

• The Mariners over the Indians: Justin Masterson was really good against the Yankees in his last start. But he squares up against Felix Hernandez today. If the Mariners score two or three runs, they win.
• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: How can you pick this game any other way? The Blue Jays are already 1-8 against the Yankees this season and today face CC Sabathia. R.A. Dickey might make it interesting but the Yankees should complete the sweep.
• The Diamondbacks over the Marlins: And this pick is not because one of my favorites, Wade Miley, is pitching. It is because I think Miley will hold the Marlins scoreless or close to it to allow his teammates to score two or three runs off of poor Ricky Nolasco.
• The Pirates over the Astros: What kind of uniforms are the Pirates wearing lately? Are they fatigues? They must be because their offense is invisible right now. Even so, you cannot pick the Astros on a regular basis. Lucas Harrell versus Jeff Locke.
• The Braves over the Dodgers: Mike Minor does not always fill me with great confidence, but I have to go with the Braves' offense against young Matt Magill.
• The Bay Rays over the Orioles: The Rays complete the series they have dominated against the Orioles with their best pitcher, Matt Moore, taking the hill today. That should be game, set and match. Chris Tillman has been pretty good, but he is not in Moore's category.
• The Red Sox over the Twins: Can we just say that David Ortiz is incredible? How many times has he been left for dead only to come back and dominate? I do not care if Pedro Hernandez is doing well and is a lefty. The Red Sox have really killed off last year, haven't they? There is only one problem with this pick: John Lackey. Oh boy.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: Yeah, this pick was wrong yesterday. And yeah, John Gast is pitching and I have no idea how he will do. And yeah, Kyle Lohse could come back to haunt his old team. But you see, this is what the Cardinals do to me. They lull me to sleep and then kill my pick. It is personal at this point. I know it is.
• The Cubs over the Mets: Feldman and Travis Wood have been a nice 1-2 combination lately. I bet you did not know that Wood has a 0.92 WHIP thus far after eight starts. Dillon Gee is always capable of a good game. But I think the Cubs take this one.
• The White Sox over the Angels: The Angels exploded on the scoreboard yesterday. Does that mean they take off now? Are they over the hump? Time will tell. I am too skeptical to pick Jason Vargas despite his league leading change-up. I will instead pick Jake Peavy.
• The Athletics over the Royals: The Royals' offense really confuses me. Sometimes they seem good. Other times, they seem to go in long stretches of coma-like trances. I do not get it. But the A's have Coco Crisp back and A.J. Griffin is tough in his home ballpark and Luis Mendoza seems like a bad idea to pick.
• The Rockies over the Giants: Barry Zito has a meme of pitching a couple of great games followed by a shelling. And he was shelled last time. So this should be a good outing, right? Not in Coors Field. Juan Nicasio goes for the Rockies.
• The Nationals over the Padres: Dan Haren at least seems to get run support that Strasburg and Zimmermann never get. Grrr. So will be the case today as the Nats score five or more against Andrew Cashner and company.
• The Tigers over the Rangers: This has been a fun series of two pretty evenly matched teams. They have taken turns winning and today is the Tigers' turn. Doug Fister over Derek Holland. Miguel Cabrera should hit Holland if he gets pitched to.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Reds over the Phillies: Homer Bailey is a power pitcher whose fastball is averaging over 93 MPH this season. Why is that important here? Because the Phillies have 347 plate appearances against power pitchers and have a combined .493 OPS. Eww. Plus, I still think Jonathan Pettibone has led a charmed life thus far.

Yesterday: 7-8

Last week: 54-41

Month: 139-101

Season: 368-265

Games of the Day: 33-14

Chris Sale is quietly terrific

The Chicago White Sox' Chris Sale might be the quietest superstar in baseball. Whether it is because his team gets little national exposure or because he is not doing Head & Shoulders commercials, I do not know, but he just goes out there every fifth day and is devastating. And he keeps getting better. Sale has now started 38 games in his big league career and is 22-10 in those starts with a 2.93 ERA. Yeah, that is good. Really good.

Last night, he beat the Angels. He did not allow a run. He struck out twelve. Ho hum. As maligned as they have been this season, the Angels do have some bats. Granted, they are all not working together so far this season. But for Sale to limit them to three hits in seven and two-thirds innings is pretty terrific.

For a long time, I have been fearful for Sale. He is six feet, six inches tall and weights only 180 pounds. He looks like the wind can blow him over. He came straight out of college for the White Sox when they selected him with the thirteenth overall pick in the 2010 draft. The White Sox immediately put him in their bullpen. He was terrific there in 79 appearances between 2010 and 2011. I thought that was where he would always be.

And then the White Sox converted him to the starter role and I was fearful of how that would play out. Coming in sixth in Cy Young Award voting gives the answer. But he increased his innings from 71 in 2011 to 192 last season. How would that effect him? The answer this year is, "Stop worrying, William." He looks elastic and electric.

Of course, Sale is not throwing 95 MPH gas like he was in the bullpen. But he is still throwing in the upper 91 range. He was mostly a four-seam fastball pitcher as a reliever but is now throwing mostly two-seam fastballs when he throws hard stuff. His two-seam according to PitchF/X is already worth seven runs above average this season. And that is not even his best pitch.

In his 38 starts, Chris Sale's change-up has been worth nearly twenty runs above average. So far this season, only Doug Fister's change-up is rated higher. And over the last two seasons, only Jason Vargas' and Cole Hamels' change-ups rate higher. And those other two do not have the value in their other pitches like Sale does.

And Sale's results are not flukes. His FIP is only slightly higher at 3.18 and his xFIP, SIERA and tERA are all in the same ballpark. His walk rate is lower this season making his strikeout to walk ratio over four and better than a season ago when he was terrific.

Chris Sale is a terrific pitcher who is getting better as he goes. He may be quiet, but he must speak loudly in fantasy baseball circles. Despite being this tall beanpole, he appears to be durable and consistent. Perhaps the rest of baseball fandom will start recognizing him when he starts an All Star Game or wins a Cy Young Award. He is certainly good enough where both would not surprise me.

If you want to see what this kid can do, check out this video. Be forewarned that you will have to listen to Ken Harrelson, but it is worth it.

MLB Game Picks - Saturday: May 18, 2013

Ten correct picks out of fifteen is nothing to sneeze at. But I still have to laugh at picking the Marlins to win. Heh. What a dope. The logic behind that pick was that the Marlins--as bad as they are--are still going to win 50 games this season. So you have to pick them once in a while. Yesterday was not that day.

A lot of the correct picks were sort of lucky. The Astros coughed up their game to the Pirates with two errors in the ninth and a collision in the outfield that allowed the winning run to score. The Red Sox, Indians and Nationals all won in extra innings. But hey, they all count against you when they go wrong, so I will take them all.

It is time to look at Saturday baseball, which features six day games. There should be something for everybody today. The picks:

• The Cubs over the Mets: Scott Feldman has been grooving and as long as he keeps grooving and not grooving fastballs in the zone, he should win today over Jeremy Hefner, who is not having a good season. David Wright is on fire though, so watch out for him.
• The Indians over the Mariners: The Indians are tied for first place in the AL Central. That seems sort of incredible. But there it is. Zach McAllister has been decent, particularly in his last three or four starts. Joe Saunders for the M's can be great or terrible depending on the day.
• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: This is the Blue Jays' best chance to win a game in this series with David Phelps starting for the Yankees. But the Yankees seem to have the Jays' number thus far this season. If Phelps can keep the big boys in the yard and Brandon Morrow does not pitch well, the Yankees will win.
• The White Sox over the Angels: My gosh, the Angels are in this endless funk. Albert Pujols is batting .242. Josh Hamilton is at .210. They keep insisting that Aybar is a lead-off batter. Ugh. Joe Blanton is 0-7. What are the odds of him winning? Like zero? Hector Santiago with the win.
• The Phillies over the Reds: The Phillies are going to win just enough games this season to force them to keep everybody when what they really need is a trade or three to rebuild. Kyle Kendrick is a pitcher I always mock, but he always wins. So what does that tell me? The Reds are confusing and Bronson Arroyo is at the head of that class.
• The Bay Rays over the Orioles: Jair Jurrjens makes his first start for the Orioles. Those situations always scare me. I picked against Ramon Hernandez (I miss Fausto) last time and he was quite good. So I will go with the Rays with Longoria in the middle of it.
• The Diamondbacks over the Marlins: Man, D-back fans are totally surrealistic sometimes. Pick against their team and they take it totally personal. I am just picking games over here. One called me ignorant yesterday. Sheesh. Okay, okay, I will never pick against your team again. Brandon McCarthy over a kid named Tom Koehler.
• The Twins over the Red Sox: I think I am zero for Scott Diamond this season. Pick against him and he throws a gem. Pick with him and he gets knocked out early. He has a chance if he pitches well today since Ryan Dempster is going for the Red Sox.
• The Braves over the Dodgers: Los Angeles is not having much baseball fun this season is it. Between the Angels and the Dodgers, which is more disappointing? Today will not be any better as the Dodgers run Chris Capuano out there and the Braves have enough power to make that hurt. The only problem with this pick is Kris Medlen, who has not pitched well for the Braves.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: This pick sounds easy. Lance Lynn has been unbelievable. The Cardinals' offense has been on fire. Matt Holliday is quietly having a great season. It should be an easy pick. Nothing is ever easy with the Cardinals. I would suggest they walk Aramis Ramirez today. That guy loves him some Cardinals. Marco Estrada goes for the Brewers.
• The Rangers over the Tigers: This is a really good series and they have split their first two games. The Rangers have to be the pick at home, though Justin Grimm is no lock by any means. Anibal Sanchez is capable of a shut down game anytime he takes the mound. Rangers at home.
• The Giants over the Rockies: Tim Lincecum at Coors Field does not sound fun. But then again, neither does Tyler Chatwood. This game will be like 10-8 with the Giants coming out on top.
• The Nationals over the Padres: My man! Jordan Zimmermann! Got to go with him and ride him like the horse he is. Eric Stults is totally baffling to me and I do not think I have picked one of his starts correctly.
• The Royals over the Athletics: The Coliseum should keep Ervin Santana's gopher balls in the park and when he is not giving them up, he is okay. Tommy Milone can be tough at home. This game will be low scoring like last night's. Either team can win, to be honest with you.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Pirates over the Astros: Wow, was last night the ultimate disaster for the Astros? What a way to lose a ballgame. A.J. Burnett will get a win and Erik Bedard will not remind anyone of the stuff he used to have.

Yesterday: 10-5

Week: 47-33

Month: 132-93

Season: 361-257  First time over the 100+ mark.

Games of the Day: 33-13

MLB Game Picks - Friday: May 17, 2013

For a short schedule, Thursday was a good day. Seven of nine correct is a fine tally. But as always, it was the two that got away that get all of my attention. If you reread yesterday's version, you can even see me say that Jonathon Niese was due for an overpowering performance. And yet, I still picked against him because it was the Cardinals he was facing at home. The Mets won easily despite facing Adam Wainwright.

The other wrong pick was the Yankees. Aaron Harang was supposed to start. I predicted the Yankees would rough him up. Instead (and I never heard why), Hector Noesi got the start. He was part of the Jesus Montero deal and has an astronomical ERA as a member of the Mariners. Noesi shut down the Yankees for four and a third and then five other relievers held onto the lead while Andy Pettitte hurt his back in the fifth inning.

But again, it was a good day. And now on to Friday:

• The Mets over the Cubs: The Matt Harvey show makes a stop at Wrigley and it will be an afternoon game and is must-see TV. The kid is amazing. Edwin Jackson will try to keep the Mets scoreless to at least give the game to the bullpen.
• The Phillies over the Reds: The Phillies are at home and Phil Lee is having a good season with a 4-2 record. With the Phillies not playing well, few have noticed. Tony Cingrani still has not lost a game and experts are poo-pooing his fine start to his MLB career. Time will tell if they are right or not.
• The Pirates over the Astros: Neither pitcher fills me with much enthusiasm. Jeanmar Gomez has pitched okay, but I still do not trust him. Jordan Lyles still sounds like the name of a country singer rather than a pitcher. The Pirates had a good series in Milwaukee. The Astros lose a DH as if their offense can afford to lose another bat.
• The Indians over the Mariners: Interesting game and one that is hard to peg. The M's won two of three from the Yankees. The Indians are pitching better. Among those pitching better is Ubaldo Jimenez. But it is still hard to trust him. Brandon Maurer has had some good games. Hard one to judge.
• The Orioles over the Rays: The Rays just cannot get going. And the fact that Fernando Rodney is not locking it down at the end is killing them too. When I see a guy like Rodney who was so good last year go through this, it again makes you amaze at Mariano Rivera. Rivera never had such a stretch. Jason Hammel over Jeremy Hellickson.
• The Yankees over the Blue Jays: The Yankees lost two more players yesterday in Andy Pettitte and Chris Stewart. Hiroki Kuroda will try to keep their ship afloat against a tough Blue Jays' lineup. Mark Buehrle is having a tough season, but he could hold the Yankees in check.
• The Marlins over the Diamondbacks: The Marlins will win 50 games this season. As I have said before, the trick is to figure out which games those will be. I think this one will be one of them. Kevin Slowey can have a good BABIP game and the Marlins can squeeze a few runs out of Trevor Cahill.
• The Braves over the Dodgers: Hyun-Jin Ryu has been very good. There is no doubt about that. But the Braves have the kind of right-hand hitting pop that can get to him I think. At least, that is my story and I am sticking to it. Paul Maholm goes for the Braves.
• The Rangers over the Tigers: I am not feeling this as strongly as I did yesterday when Darvish was the winner as predicted and Verlander got whacked. Rick Porcello pitches well on the road. Nick Tepesch is the wild card for me. I simply have no idea how good he is or is not.
• The Red Sox over the Twins: Clay Buchholz is really good. And it has nothing to do with tanning oil and rosin. The Red Sox had a huge comeback win against the Rays last night so they should be pumped. I really thought Vance Worley would be better for the Twins than he has been.
• The Cardinals over the Brewers: I hate picking the Cardinals. I just do. In my mind, they should win this game as Jaime Garcia is usually good at home. But Wily Peralta is an unfamiliar pitcher to me. I have just seen his name every five days doing this every day. But I really know nothing about him.
• The Giants over the Rockies: How the heck did the Rockies blow a 6-0 lead against Matt Cain, no less? Amazing. It is that kind of thing that will always keep the Rockies from contention in the end. Madison Bumgarner over Jorge De La Rosa.
• The White Sox over the Angels: Glub, glub, glub go the Angels as they lose day after day. Extraordinary development. Chris Sale will not make it any easier on them today. C.J. Wilson will not be head and shoulders above Sale. Did you see what I did there?
• The Royals over the Athletics: I kind of root for the Royals, just so you know. That might influence the picks a bit. But I do think that James Shields is better than Jarrod Parker so, all feelings aside, the pick should be correct.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Nationals over the Padres: Burch Smith made his major league debut his last time out. It did not go well. I am not expecting much better today. Gio Gonzalez should enjoy Petco and have a good day.

Yesterday: 7-2

Week: 37-28

Month: 122-88

Season: 351-252

Games of the Day: 32-13

Who is Jean Segura and what is he doing on my leaderboard?

Fangraphs.com's leaderboard is always a fascinating place. If you keep track of players from year to year, surprises show up there before they do in the national consciousness. Headley of the Padres was last year's big surprise. Recently, upon scouring the list, the name, Jean Segura, popped up. And while I should know every player in baseball since writing about the sport is what I do, Segura was an unknown to me. Who the heck is this guy and what is he doing tied for sixth among all position players in value?

One of my weak areas is keeping track of prospects. Guys like Craig Wieczorkiewicz (@mwltravelor) and Mike Schwartze (@Mike_Schwartze) as follows on Twitter help me get better at it, but it is still my weakness. As such, there was probably no way that I would have seen Jean Segura on Baseball America's top prospect list the last two years (55th and 57th). I would not have known that he was a free agent signing by the Angels way back in 2007 when he was only seventeen years old (Dominican Republic) and toiled in the minors for six seasons.

His .807 OPS in the minors is not eye-popping. But those numbers did include a good batting average, little plate patience, decent pop and good stolen base possibilities.

And I probably would not have noticed that Segura was part of the Zack Greinke trade that sent Greinke to the Angels and Segura as the best of the three players to go back to the Brewers. The Angels should have sent somebody else. Between Angels' shortstops, Harris and Aybar, they have totaled -0.3 in WAR this season. Jean Segura has already been worth 2.1 fWAR (2.2 rWAR) this season.

Thus, Jean Segura has been a bright spot in the otherwise dismal (last place) season the Brewers are having thus far in 2013. Segura's numbers are eye-popping now. His triple slash line is: .349/.392/.575 are very pretty. The slugging percentage is the most surprising. With six doubles, two triples and seven homers, Segura has already driven in eighteen runs and scored twenty-two. Add in his thirteen stolen bases out of fifteen attempts and some fantasy baseball player is probably hugging him or herself with making that selection earlier in the season.

Plus, Segura plays a prime position at shortstop and is showing above average range and above average reliability making the plays. And the best part is that he is only 23 years old.

Will Segura regress during the season? Well, sure. He is not going to hit .349. His BABIP sits currently at .373. He does not walk enough. Projections showing regression here too as thus far, his percentage of pitches swung at outside of the strike zone are down from his cups of coffee last year. I do not think his walk rate will regress as much as the projections are stating.

The power (His ISO sits at .226) has to regress. The most homers he ever hit in the minors was ten and his current seven already match his tops from the last two seasons. There is no way his home run to fly ball ratio is going to stay at the twenty percent level. But with his speed, the doubles and triple can keep coming.

Segura hits a lot of ground balls. His line drive percentage is driving his average right now at 20.3%. But his 1.88 ground ball to fly ball ratio will force the average to come down a bit if his line drive rate does not sustain itself. Of course, his speed still makes those ground balls a factor.

Jean Segura is currently the most valuable shortstop in baseball and the sixth highest position player overall. While I cannot see those placements maintaining themselves, there is no reason not to believe that Jean Segura should not finish with at least a four WAR season.

The poor Angels are scuffling along and their farm system is considered toast. Jean Segura is one that got away. From the Brewers' perspective, this is the kind of deal you make when making a trade deadline deal. Now I will know who Jean Segura is and if he plays like this, more people will know too. If he is not on the All Star ballot, write him in.

MLB Game Picks - Thursday: May 16, 2013

My last night in Augusta, Maine, brought more mediocrity as the picks just barely broke .500. And it was truly a bizarre night in baseball. Cole Hamels was awful...again. David Price was terrible and hurt, which explains the terrible. The Orioles lost to the Padres and Jason Marquis shut them down. Whuh? Adam Dunn has done something to his mechanics and is killing the ball all of the sudden. Oh sure, Dunn, make my last magazine article look stupid. As predicted, Zack Greinke only lasted five innings. But the bullpen did its job and that was not predicted. The Astros beat the Tigers and Max Scherzer. I did not see that coming. I did see Hisashi Iwakuma beating the Yankees, but what the heck, Phil Hughes?

So, yes, it was a night where I was probably lucky to break just above even. But I need to get going on these picks because I need to pack up and hit the road.

Thursday's picks:

• The Cardinals over the Mets: Jonathon Niese is due for a good performance. But it will not matter if he does because Adam Wainwright will be better. And by the way, I really enjoy watching Carlos Beltran hit a baseball.
• The Pirates over the Brewers: See, this is the thing. Francisco Liriano has made a career the last four years of giving you hope after a good performance by then going back to being terrible. But he looks different this time. Is he really? Or am I just being suckered for the thirty-fourth time? Oh, and Hiram Burgos goes for the Brewers.
• The Yankees over the Mariners: After King Felix and Iwakuma, Aaron Harang is going to look like manna from heaven. That then should give them a win as long as Andy Pettitte pitches like he did his last outing and not like the two outings before that.
• The Red Sox over the Bay Rays: I do not know I picked the Rays yesterday. I had every intention of picking the Red Sox. Weird. Anyway, I am tempted to go with Alex Cobb. But the Rays have a terrible time against lefty pitching and that is what Felix Doubront is. As long as Doubront does not melt down as he is apt to do, He should win.
• The Reds over the Marlins: Yes, phenom, Jose Fernandez is pitching for the Marlins. But Mat Latos is pitching for the Reds. I cannot see the Reds losing here.
• The Rangers over the Tigers: What a match-up! Justin Verlander against Yu Darvish. How cool is that? Justin Verlander's velocity is still down a few ticks, but he is pitching great despite his 4-3 record. But I am going with Yu Darvish at home. Darvish versus Miguel Cabrera is going to be worth the price of admission by itself.
• The Giants over the Rockies: Matt Cain has pitched eleven times at Coors Field and has held his own there with a 5-3 record and a 4.11 ERA. Not bad considering. Jhoulys Chacin is uneven and up and down and it is hard to predict what you will get from outing to outing. Cain seems the better choice.
• The White Sox over the Angels: If you cannot beat them, join them. The Angels continue to spiral down. Jerome Williams has been their best pitcher. But he is due for a clunker. Adam Dunn is killing the ball and Carlos Quintana can be decent.

And the Game of the Day!

• The Nationals over the Padres: This is supposed to be the guaranteed pick of the day and Stephen Strasburg is 1-5. Bryce Harper out hurts the Nats' lineup a lot. But Strasburg is the pick as Edinson Volquez is pitching better, but is due to return to form.

Yesterday: 8-7

Week: 30-26

Month: 115-86

Season: 344-250

Games of the Day: 31-13